USING BUSINESS-ANALYTICS METHODS IN DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECASTING CRISIS PHENOMENA IN THE ENTERPRISE 

Opekunov Aleksey Nikolayevich, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor, sub-department of economics and finance,
Penza State University, E-mail: opekunovan@yandex.ru 

338.2 

Background. The article considers the main prerequisites and conceptual trends in the development of crisis management. Analysis of the dynamics and causes of bankruptcies of enterprises of various industry affiliation showed that methods for assessing and predicting crisis phenomena require significant development. First of all, analytical work should be closely linked with the formation of the business model of the enterprise, and not be limited to ascertaining the facts of insolvency based on financial ratios.
The purpose of the article is to study the principles of forming diagnostic and evaluation tools in the anti-crisis management of an enterprise.
Materials and methods. The statistical and analytical data of the Center for Strategic Studies, the Higher School of Economics,
scientific works of scientists engaged in the study of financial state diagnostics are used. The methodological basis was formed by the principles of the system approach and the use of the fundamental provisions of economic analysis and business analysis.
Results. An assessment is made of the possibilities of using traditional methods of diagnostic work at enterprises in times of crisis. Analysis of data on enterprises in various industries made it possible to identify the main financial indicators that are characteristic for the formation of the preconditions for bankruptcy. However, according to the received criteria, the formation of the forecast of crisis phenomena, and, consequently, their management is essentially limited. To obtain reliable estimates and forecasts, it is necessary to build analytical work on the basis of a business model study, the approximate composition of which is presented in the final part of the article.
Conclusions. The stages of the crisis and the corresponding types of crisis management are singled out, the most topical of which are anticipatory and preventive management. The directions of using methodological and methodical apparatus of anti-recessionary business regulation are proposed, based on methods of business modeling and business-analysis. 

anti-crisis management, types of crisis management, bankruptcy, tools of anti-crisis business regulation, business model, business-analysis